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December 19th, 2008 10:12 AM

How Ford Was Bailed Out, Too

by Ray Hennessey

215 Comments »

Ford's statement notes that the government gave emergency funding to GM and Chrysler, and not Ford. That is true: it did not receive the short-term loans from the government. But, it would be inaccurate to say Ford was not bailed out like the other two. Here's why:

 

- Ford is still seeking a $9 billion bridge loan from the government, though it notes it “hopes” it doesn't need it

- Ford also has said the failure of one or more of its competitors would also possibly lead to its own bankruptcy, so preventing such failures helps them

- Any concessions from the UAW on wages would benefit Ford.

 

So, while Ford did not get cash in this latest round, they, too, were essentially bailed out by the White House and Treasury.

 

 

December 10th, 2008 7:12 PM

Banks Adjusting to New Political World

by Ray Hennessey

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Chicago, in addition to being the home of one of most delightfully scandalous political dramas in some years, is also the stage where the first act of the new world order for banks seems to be playing out.

At issue are the workers of Republic Window and Doors, which shut its own windows and doors and went belly up after its bank, Bank of America, cut off its credit because, well, it was a bad credit risk. But the workers -- unionized ones, you should note -- refused to budge and were able to attract the media and politicians (including now-indicted Illinois Gov. Rod Blagojevich) to their cause.

The villain, though, turned out not to be Republic, but rather than bank, so much so that Blago himself, a day before sporting handcuffs, said the state would no longer do business with B of A. (Perhaps B of A CEO Ken Lewis should have made a financial offer to the governor. He may have ended up with a Senate seat. But that story is for another time.)

Yesterday, Bank of America caved to the political pressure and decided to offer "limited" loans to Republic. The bank was in an impossible position. On the one hand, it faced criticism that it had received taxpayer money, the union workers who lost their jobs were taxpayers, and, ergo, B of A had bitten the hand that bailed it. On the other hand, B of A received taxpayer funds with the understanding that it wouldn't make boneheaded loans to risk borrowers like -- you guessed it! -- Republic.

Bank of America extending credit should have been enough to end the story. Workers will get severance, Republic will slide from the news, and we should all be able to go back to trying to decipher the redacted, and no doubt delicious, language the governor used when trying to fill the Obama Senate seat.

But there's a coda to this symphony that shows the new political world banks operate under post-TARP.

J.P. Morgan Chase entered the mix, saying it would extend loans to Republic, too. Chase, it turns out, lent $12 million to Republic last year to keep it in business and even got a minority stake for its trouble. (Those loans are now worthless.) Now, it will throw another $400,000, earmarked specifically for worker severance. Those who didn't sleep through Economics 101 see the dilemma here: a company without revenue cannot hope to repay a loan. Therefore, Chase will not recoup its latest loan, nor will Bank of America.

What does Chase have to say to justify the move? Funny, that: company representatives are silent in the Chase press release announcing the move. BUT, there are two people quoted in the release: Illinois Rep. Luis Gutierrez and state Attorney General Lisa Madigan.

Fitting spokespeople for a semi-private enterprise in a post-bailout world.

 

December 8th, 2008 1:12 PM

John and Andrew and Dick and Eliot

by Ray Hennessey

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There's an irony in the fight now developing between Merrill Lynch CEO John Thain and N.Y. Attorney General Andrew Cuomo.

Thain, according to the WSJ, is fighting with the compensation committee of Merrill to get a $10 million bonus he feels he's entitled to. The committee isn't keen on the idea of paying it out, particularly since most of Wall Street has seen its execs forgo bonuses. Cuomo, who has been critical of Wall Street pay, says he finds it 'shocking' that Thain is seeking bonuses of that size.

Put aside the merits of each camp in this. There's actually some history repeating itself. Eliot Spitzer, before his short but wonderfully entertaining tenure as N.Y. governor, went after NYSE chair Dick Grasso because of his pay and ultimately forced Grasso's ouster from the NYSE in 2003.

Thain, you'll recall, was shortly thereafter tapped to become NYSE CEO, a job he held until being picked late last year to run Merrill.

So, in short, Thain got his job because of a row between a financial executive and a N.Y. attorney general. Because of that, he should know to tread lightly. These wars are often nasty, and rarely fought on the merits of the arguments.

Or, maybe Thain knows that some things are worth the battle. The Grasso lawsuit went away, Dick kept all his compensation and Spitzer got into trouble for briefs of a different kind.

UPDATE: WSJ now reports Thain is requesting no bonus. Probably a politically smart move.

 

December 8th, 2008 12:12 PM

The Problem of Re-Defaulting on Mortgages

by Ray Hennessey

13 Comments »

Second chances aren't producing first-class results.

According to the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, 36% of mortgage holders who had received a re-worked mortgage from their bank were late on payments three months after they got the new loan terms.

Worse, 58% of mortgage holders were more than 30 days late six months after their loan modifications.

What does this mean? A number of things. First, some of these mortgages were so badly underwritten that borrowers, even with a rework, can't hope but stay current (a situation that will only get worse as unemployment rises).

Second, some reworks just aren't good enough and will probably have to be modified further.

And, lastly, the numbers of delinquencies will rise even further, despite the best efforts of Congress and the banks.

 

December 5th, 2008 11:12 AM

10% of Mortgages are in Trouble, But It Could Be Worse

by Ray Hennessey

6 Comments »

The latest numbers from the Mortgage Bankers Association are pretty nasty. Right now, 6.99% of mortgages are delinquent in some form, and 2.97% are in the foreclosure process. That means that 1 in every 10 mortgages is not being paid on time.

But the good news is that it could be worse. The foreclosure number should be higher.

There was a sharp jump in the number of mortgages that are late by 90 days or above. Typically, those move from the delinquent column to the foreclosure one. But, banks are hesitant to foreclose, so they're remaining delinquent. In short, banks should be foreclosing on these homes, but they're not.

Why? Two reasons. First is the market: the housing market is so weak that a bank doesn't get much out of foreclosing on a home and selling it. They can make more simply letting the homeowner work through the problems and wait out either the homeowner getting his act together or the market improving so that a foreclosure is more financially worthwhile.

Second is political pressure. The Feds have been pressuring banks to halt foreclosures, and many have complied. Some states have also passed laws preventing banks from foreclosing.

The situation could get worse, particularly in light of the big job losses we saw today, but, if the trend holds, look for more delinquent mortgages and a flat rate in foreclosures.

 
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