December 5th, 2008 11:12 AM
10% of Mortgages are in Trouble, But It Could Be Worse
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The latest numbers from the Mortgage Bankers Association are pretty nasty. Right now, 6.99% of mortgages are delinquent in some form, and 2.97% are in the foreclosure process. That means that 1 in every 10 mortgages is not being paid on time.
But the good news is that it could be worse. The foreclosure number should be higher.
There was a sharp jump in the number of mortgages that are late by 90 days or above. Typically, those move from the delinquent column to the foreclosure one. But, banks are hesitant to foreclose, so they're remaining delinquent. In short, banks should be foreclosing on these homes, but they're not.
Why? Two reasons. First is the market: the housing market is so weak that a bank doesn't get much out of foreclosing on a home and selling it. They can make more simply letting the homeowner work through the problems and wait out either the homeowner getting his act together or the market improving so that a foreclosure is more financially worthwhile.
Second is political pressure. The Feds have been pressuring banks to halt foreclosures, and many have complied. Some states have also passed laws preventing banks from foreclosing.
The situation could get worse, particularly in light of the big job losses we saw today, but, if the trend holds, look for more delinquent mortgages and a flat rate in foreclosures.
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